A 1952 Satire Book Predicted ChatGPT
Vonnegut's Dystopian Satirized Future is (Almost) Here
“The main business of humanity is to do a good job of being human beings, not to serve as appendages to machines, institutions, and systems.” Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano
Satire points out flaws within society by using humor. Classic works of fiction such as Animal Farm, Catch-22, Don’t Look Up and Wag The Dog take aim at political regimes, institutions or even human nature.
Satire is a powerful technique but far too often, lines that appear as comical exaggerations contain more truth than we realize.
Kurt Vonnegut Jr., one of the great satire writers of his time, accomplished exactly that in his debut novel Player Piano (1952). Written shortly after WWII, Vonnegut created a world almost completely automated by machines, leading to societal changes once considered unthinkable.
In 1952, Player Piano was clearly a satire. In 2024, you might confuse some of its lines with quotes from technology or media companies. In today’s article I am going to discuss the implications of a fully automated society, how Gen AI and the proposed regulations are bringing us closer to the world created by Vonnegut 70 years ago.
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Technology, The Luddites & Techno Optimists
Long before the internet and fancy algorithms, humanity relied on technology to expand. The discovery of fire1, invention of better farming tools and creation of aqueducts made it possible for civilization to sustain increasingly greater population sizes. With some exceptions, despite this rapid population growth, there was a persistent labor shortage, since activities always relied on human labor2.
Up until the late 18th century, most people lived on the country side and if they were not conscripted in some noble persons military conflict, they were likely a farmer (no Costco’s in those days). It was the Industrial Revolution that saw inventions leading to the disappearance of entire lines of work and the creation of what now resembles the modern career (M-F 9-5 work week, coffee breaks, Peggy’s disgusting muffins you are forced to try etc.).
This created many new kinds of jobs, but they were not available to everyone, leading to unemployment and then anger against this new technology. This led to the rise of the Luddites, a group of English workers in the early 19th century who rebelled against this technology by actively sabotaging machinery. The movement lasted less than a decade but hundreds of years later, people opposed to technological progress are still called Luddites.
On the other end of the spectrum, there were countless Techno-Optimists, this group would contain most noted scientists, economists, inventors & entrepreneurs. Their goal was to keep pushing society to adopt new technologies that would make life better. If you are reading this from your computer or mobile device, you can probably guess which group ultimately won. Nonetheless, despite great achievements from technology, many new problems arose. In response to these issues, Luddites will say stop or slow down, while Techno-Optimists will say:
ChatGPT, AGI & The Automated Society
Sam Altman, clearly inspired by Jeff Goldblum in Independence Day and Jurassic Park, along with the team at OpenAI have forced the world to notice the promise and potential pitfalls of Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs). Their flagship product, ChatGPT is believed to have passed the famous Turing Test3.
If you don’t feel like watching the clip, Peter Thiel, believes this might be more important than the achievement of AGI and it will have dramatic changes society. He did not go into much detail but we can surmise that he’s referring to the high number of jobs estimated to be changed, displaced or eliminated because of AI automation.
The range of proposed solutions have been to:
Don’t interfere but trust new jobs will be created
Slow down progress by increasing regulation or to take a pause
Impose taxes on the companies benefitting from AI
Create new government programs such as Universal Basic Income (UBI)
Make major investments in re-educating the workforce
Federal job guarantees (create government jobs)
There are many others but most rely on increased central planning of the economy. Whether you are a Capitalist or Socialist, this should concern you. Why?
Player Piano’s Automated Society
"Without regard for the wishes of men, any machines or techniques or forms of organization that can economically replace men (will). Replacement is not necessarily bad, but to do it without regard for the wishes of men is lawlessness.” Player Piano
Player Piano takes place in Ilium, New York, a city divided into three parts. The northwest for the engineers, managers & civil servants, the northeast for the machines and the south (called Homestead) for the remaining citizens (or slaves depending on your perspective)4.
A third World War left the US with a labor shortage, which prompted the engineers and managers to design factories that required few workers. Within 10 years of the conclusion to the war, all manufacturing and physical labor jobs are performed by machines. High school graduates with top percentile test scores end up in the northwest as engineers or managers, everybody else goes to the army or public works.
To avoid the natural boom and bust cycle, consumption and production, like most things, are decided by machines. Instead of a free market, Homesteaders receive an income from the government to afford a standardized home, food, home appliances and a little pocket pocket money that goes to drinking, cigarettes & entertainment. Their basic needs are met and they enjoy a lot of leisure time, since their household chores are also automated. Yet these Homesteaders lack purpose. Especially those old enough to remember life before the war are deeply unhappy. They have nothing to aspire to and have no chance for upward mobility. Even for the younger generation, save the very fortunate few that score highly enough to become a northwester, know that their fate is decided for them by the time they are 18.
Engineers and managers, have much higher disposal incomes and enjoy higher status compared to the Homesteaders. Despite these advantages, they don’t have much more freedom. They are cogs part of a much larger system; even most senior managers and engineers lack autonomy to make any consequential decisions. To maintain their position, they need to follow strict protocols and sets of behavior imparted by their organizations, as well as the law. This maintains order long enough, but eventually turns into a power keg filled with a population ready to rebel.
Lessons
Player Piano is a satire, yet in 2024 politicians and thought leaders in response to the anticipated job losses from AI, are going to recreate this society. Preventing technological progress is at best a short term solution, that even the most ardent advocates acknowledge. Other proposed ideas center around the government taking a more active role in managing the economy, whether it comes from UBI, taxation or creating valueless jobs; all policies present in the story.
If the best ideas our elected officials can muster are to pay people not to work or give them meaningless jobs, we are in trouble. While some might be happy with a guaranteed living stipend from the government, I like Vonnegut, expect many more would be deeply unsatisfied. Ironically, Vonnegut was a self proclaimed Luddite and in favor of Socialism. Yet through Player Piano, he expresses his own skepticism of how Socialism or Communism would work in a society where humans lack autonomy and everything is centrally decided top down aided by technology5.
UBI and federal job guarantees would prevent physical starvation however humans need more than that to feel fulfilled. Instead of this doom and gloom over the inevitability that AI will come and take our jobs, government should take a leading role in giving its citizens a sense of optimism for the future by helping support new and exciting projects that will create opportunities.
Despite all the technological progress present in Player Piano, things were not that different compared to how humans actually lived in the 1950s. Where were the Jetson style flying cars or sonic airplanes travelling at the speed of light? Even the wealthiest Northwesters were still driving cars and living in normal houses. Instead of the government trying to control technology and the economy, another solution not depicted in Player Piano, would be making major investments to help with advancements not directly related to AI.
This is not to say, there should not be some sort of regulations around the usage of AI and technology, there should be, and I’m confident it will come. The goal of these regulations should not be to simply slow down or stop AI progress, as this is more likely to benefit incumbents, making them more powerful. By incentivizing entrepreneurs and smaller companies, new jobs and industries can spring up, creating new opportunities for workers displaced by technology or new graduates looking for their first role.
Governments are trying this with investments into Cleantech and semi-conductor chips, but surely there are many more difficult problems facing the world in need of capital and labor to try to solve? If you take away one lesson from today’s article, it is that UBI and federal job guarantees might prevent people from starving but would leave large parts of the population without autonomy or hope; this would recreate the society of Player Piano and this should have you very concerned.
I will leave you with his great quote from Albert Camus:
“The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion.”
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If you want to read more about AI, I suggest you check out Michael Spencer and Matthew Harris
Some consider this the first appearance of invention, I personally consider it a gift from Prometheus.
On a country basis there may have been stretches of a labor surplus but on a global or at least continental basis, this was more rare.
The Turing Test (also known as the Imitation Game) is an evaluation if a machine can successfully convince a human they are interacting with responses from another human. Researchers from Stanford believe ChatGPT passed the test.
This is a joke only readers of the book will get.
This would not be the first time his writings have appealed to groups with opposing political beliefs. His short story, Harrison Bergeron, has been quoted by prominent right wing figures such as Justice Antonin Scalia.
Albert Camus has the quotes that just strikes your guts when you need to hear it...